NBA Playoffs preview and predictions: Expert bets for every first-round series

Cavaliers vs. Magic

Game 1: Sat., April 20, 1 p.m. ET, ESPN
Cavaliers -198 | Magic +166 (FanDuel)

The Case for the Cavs

Expect to see a whole lot of defense in this made-for-NBA-TV series. But while the Cavs at least have a few potential scoring options, it's really hard to see the Magic finding enough offense to hang in this series.

Orlando was 5-10 against top-six defenses like the Cavs, averaging 104.4 points per game, compared to 42-25 at 111.9 points per game against all other opponents. The best Magic weapon, Paolo Banchero, saw a similar falloff. Against top-six defenses, he was an ugly 44% from the field with a sub-100 Offensive Rating, and he was miserable against the Cavs on both ends of the court despite a 42-point game, with a 98-129 ORTG-DRTG differential and a terrible -4.2 BPM. Franz Wagner was also poor.

The Magic got here with elite defense, but there just aren't many options on offense. Orlando is bottom five at 3s, and the Cavs rank third in 2-point percentage defense. Orlando is also top-five in free-throw rate, but Cleveland doesn't foul much, and the Cavs dominated the offensive glass in the season series too. The Cavs took 31 more 3-point attempts than the Magic over four games as well.

Cleveland's offense can be a grind, but it's really hard to find enough points from Orlando.

The Case for the Magic

It's hard to come into a series with worse vibes than the Cavs tanking the final minutes of the season to the Hornets' backups and blowing the division to get into this matchup. That puts all the pressure on Cleveland to win this series, and the young Magic are playing with house money.

Cleveland started 2024 at 17-1, but the Cavs are 30-32 outside of that stretch and an ugly 11-16 since the All-Star break, with both the offense and defense ranked in the bottom 10. Donovan Mitchell does not look healthy, playing only seven games since the start of March, and he's been absolutely miserable on court with his season-long BPM dropping from 6.5 to -3.8 and an ugly 102 ORTG.

The Magic are a great team at home and have a terrific bench unit, and they can force turnovers in this series and score easy buckets off of them. They're the younger, hungrier team, and the Cavs may be ready for the offseason and potentially a new coach and/or a Mitchell trade.

Betting Picks

Split your bet between Cavs in 5 (+375, bet365) and Cavs in 6 (+490, FanDuel)

I would've probably picked against both of these teams against any other side in the playoffs, but here we are. Cleveland's vibes are whatever the opposite of immaculate is, and it's entirely possible the locker room is sour and this goes badly.

But the Cavs were also minutes away from a division title despite a season besieged by injuries, and they should have their top four on the court. In a vacuum, that top four — Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen — may well be the top four players in the series right now.

Give me the Cavs in five or six. I'll split my bet equally on both, giving us an implied ticket at +163. I like that better than Cavs -1.5 (+110) because we're only sacrificing the sweep and neither offense is steady enough to sweep here.

Props & Other Angles

Game to game, it's hard to bet anything other than unders until these teams prove otherwise. What's the lowest final score here that would surprise you? 81-73? 78-71? How low can we go? I'll be looking for opportunities to fade Banchero. He's going to get a ton of attention defensively. I like turnover overs, since he averaged 4.3 per game against the Cavs.

In games where you like the Cavs, bet the first quarter. Cleveland won all three first quarters in the season series with Mitchell playing, twice by 17 and 19, and the Magic rank 21st in Net Rating (-3.7) that quarter.

I'll take a shot on Sam Merrill to lead a series in 3s (+550, bet365) where there may not be many. He's as good a shooter as there is in the NBA, and he had eight in one game against Orlando. I'll also nibble both Goga Bitadze and Jonathan Isaac at +10000 for rebounding series leader. The Magic have to play a big, and Wendell Carter Jr. has been unreliable.

Bucks vs. Pacers

Game 1: Sun., April 21, 7 p.m. ET, TNT
Bucks -118 | Pacers +100 (FanDuel)

The Case for the Bucks

Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful to start the series with a calf injury, but Giannis has historically been a fast healer, and when he's back, he should absolutely dominate in this series.

The Pacers allow the most points in the paint in the NBA at 58.4, and that's where Giannis lives. He put up some outrageous lines in five games against Indiana this season — games with 54 and 64 points, a 37/10 night, a 30-point triple double — and averaged a whopping 42.2 points per game on 68% FG with over 17 free-throw attempts a game.

Indiana has absolutely no answer for Antetokounmpo. The Pacers' defense is not good, and Antetokounmpo has taken advantage of it better than any player in the league. Giannis got even better down the stretch, playing at an MVP level. Milwaukee just needs to weather the storm early, get at least one of the first two games at home, get Giannis back for Game 3 and take care of business from there.

The Case for the Pacers

Antetokounmpo has played at an MVP level because he had to — the rest of this team stinks. Damian Lillard has fallen off hard and isn't the right sort of penetrating guard to hurt this defense. Khris Middleton isn't what he once was, and Brook Lopez was terrible in the season series at 4.0 RPG with some ghastly lines. The Bucks brought in Doc Rivers to fix the defense without finding any answers, but the offense has cratered from No. 2 to 18 ORTG under Doc and from top three EFG and free throws to No. 13.

For all that Giannis production, the Pacers won four of five against the Bucks anyway. This is just a terrible matchup for Milwaukee, whose defense is built to encourage opponent 2s but is no longer good at stopping them. The Bucks defense allows the fourth-most 2-point attempts but dropped from No. 1 in 2-point percent defense a year ago to league average, and the Pacers lead the league in both 2s and 2-point percentage. They get easy bucket after easy bucket and did so all season, especially against the Bucks.

Indiana didn't even shoot that well against Milwaukee. The Pacers just got easy stuff, and a lot of it. They scored at least 27 points in 19 of 20 quarters and averaged 128.8 against Milwaukee with at least 122 points in every game. The Pacers dominated 2s, got to the line a lot and won the bench minutes. They were the better team head-to-head, even with Giannis playing. Without him, it might not be close.

Betting Picks

Pacers escalator: +100 series | -1.5 (+210) | -2.5 (+375) | Sweep (+900)

This is my favorite pick of the first round, and I ran to bet this at open at +230 — hopefully you followed on Twitter. That number was bet way down, then even further with the Antetokounmpo injury news.

As awesome as Antetokounmpo was in the season series, Tyrese Haliburton was pretty great too. He averaged 27 points and 11 assists with an absurd 142 Offensive Rating and a BPM over 11, basically MVP genius level offense. He slowed down in season playing injured, but since March 20, the Pacers have the best offense in the league and sit third in Net Rating, and Haliburton's numbers and metrics have returned.

I still like the Pacers at any plus number, and I'm playing the full escalator. If you like Indiana, you definitely want a short series. The longer it drags out, the more chance Giannis is back and wreaking havoc. Bet on the Pacers winning a short series, and bet it multiple ways. This is my top play of the round.

Props & Other Angles

You'll want to attack the Pacers early and often. If you like Indiana in the series, you obviously like them even more while Antetokounmpo is out. Bet the Pacers in Game 1, and look to play Pacers team overs with them averaging almost 129 points per game against Milwaukee.

The Pacers are 27-21 against teams .500 and better, second best in the East. Is there a world where Haliburton is the best player in the Eastern Conference playoffs? Antetokounmpo and Embiid are banged up, and Haliburton has been awesome. You might think about investing in a Pacers future like +2500 to win the East, even if you have a ticket to hedge out of later.

Keep an eye out for an opportunity to bet on Antetokounmpo to lead the series in points after Game 2. Even with no points those first two, his points per game was so eye-popping against Indiana that he could close ground in a hurry once he's back, and we might get a really long number.

Clippers vs. Mavericks

Sun., April 21, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Clippers +120 | Mavs -142 (FanDuel)

The Case for the Clippers

The Mavericks are getting a lot of steam and public attention after winning 16 of 18 before punting the final two games of the season, but only one win in that stretch came against a current top-six seed, and that was on a miracle Kyrie Irving shot.

Dallas compiled most of those wins against mediocre and bad teams, and the Mavs did so with outlier defense. It's Defensive EFG leapt from 26th to third from Feb. 5 forward, and that just doesn't pass the smell test. The Mavs still rank bottom six defensively in both second-chance and fast-break points allowed, and the team is 22-26 against teams .500 or better, worst among remaining West teams.

Since 2016, Kawhi Leonard has lost one playoff series he finished healthy (and led 3-1 in that one). In 72 games during that stretch, he's scored almost 29 points per game on 51/39/88 shooting with an 11.0 BPM in a massive minutes load and a huge defensive presence. When Playoff Kawhi is available, he's pretty consistently turned into slightly bigger Michael Jordan.

Luka Doncic is awesome, but Playoff Kawhi is just as good, and Doncic is already maxed out on usage and minutes while Leonard, James Harden and Paul George all have a strong history of ramping up minutes and defense in the playoffs. The Clippers have another gear to get to, and they also have a big bench advantage and a massive coaching advantage in Ty Lue over Jason Kidd.

If Kawhi and Harden can offset Doncicand Kyrie Irving, then PG, Russell Westbrook, Norman Powell and the rest of the Clippers are just the better collection of talent.

The Case for the Mavs

It doesn't really matter if Playoff Kawhi plays like Michael Jordan if he's not actually on the court. Leonard is already a question mark heading into the start of the series with knee inflammation, and he's failed to finish each of his last two playoff series and played 68 games this regular season, his most in ages. Harden (72) and George (74) also played their most in years.

The Mavs have the younger superstar, and Dončić has been absolutely phenomenal in his 28 playoff games. He's scored 32.5 points per game with nine boards and eight assists, and if we're making MJ comparisons, Jordan is the only other player in NBA history to score at least 30 a game in 25 or more playoff appearances.

And it's not just individual accolades. Dončić's teams have consistently outperformed expectations in the playoffs. He's played in five series, all of them as an underdog. All but one of those series went to at least six games, and the Mavs covered the series spread in four of the five and won two series outright as +245 and +240 dogs in 2020.

Dončić can win playoff games on his own and already has, and so has Irving. This team is red hot, Daniel Gafford and the role players are fitting in perfectly and the Mavs are the younger, healthier team.

Betting Picks

Split your bet between Clippers in 6 (+700, FanDuel) and Clippers in 7 (+460)

Dallas is extremely good at playing Luka Ball, which is effectively a worse version of the James Harden Rockets with less free-throw and rebounding advantages, in an era where the league's offenses have caught up some. That offense is great but no longer as much of an advantage, and Luka and the Mavs may have already maxed out those advantages. The Clippers have the better collection of talent and a huge edge at coach.

Expect a long series. Dončić's teams have played at least six games in four of five series, and Leonard's last seven series before last spring's injury exit also went at least six. Home court probably won't matter as much as which team's shots fall.

You can bet six or more games at around -200, but combine that with a Clippers pick by playing LA to win in six (+700) or seven (+460), splitting your bet between the two for an implied +217 at FanDuel.

Props & Other Angles

This is the best and most important series of the first round, but wade in carefully until we know more about Leonard. This might be a series to play game to game, and it's okay if you want to wait to bet the series later too once we have more information. Both teams will probably be available at longer prices later.

The way the bracket lines up, the winner of this series has a real chance to make a run, to the WCF or even Finals. Once we see a couple games and you feel confident in one of these teams, look to grab a future to win the West. I'm looking for a chance to bet the Clippers, but +600 isn't juicy enough yet with the Leonard unknowns.

Dončić is going to score a metric ton of points in this series, possibly by LA design. He's -120 at some books to lead the series in scoring. That's a smash anywhere under -175. Look to fade Harden scoring. His numbers against Dallas were muted when Kawhi and PG played — 14/5/3 and 8/4/7.

The Clippers dominated the offensive glass in the season series. Ivica Zubac only played 23 MPG but averaged 10.3 rebounds. He's a nice play at +150 for series rebounds leader.

Timberwolves vs. Suns

Game 1: Sat., April 20, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Wolves +116 | Suns -136 FanDuel)

The Case for the Timberwolves

Minnesota's defense isn't just great — it's historically elite. The Timberwolves had a 109.0 Defensive Rating, a full +2.3 ahead of the No. 2 Magic. The Wolves led the Magic by as much as Orlando led No. 11. Minnesota finished 6.3 points better than league average (Relative DRTG), a huge margin.

Over the past three decades, I found 17 teams with a comparable profile — an elite defense that lapped the field and a roughly league-average offense. The good news for Minnesota is that 11 of the 17 teams made at least the Conference Finals, or 65%, almost two in three. Only two won the title, but only one of them lost in the first round — the 2008 Rockets, missing defensive stalwart Yao Ming.

Minnesota's path to victory is what it's been all season — with elite defense, led by Rudy Gobert at the rim and Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and others on the perimeter.

The Wolves have a real depth advantage and have been an elite home team, while the Suns have struggled on the road. Minnesota is also No. 1 in Second-Half Net Rating at +9.2, while Phoenix was worst in the league in the fourth quarter at -12.1. The Wolves want to grind out wins with defense, protect home court and close the job late.

The Case for the Suns

The Suns are a matchup nightmare for Minnesota, perhaps the worst in the league. Phoenix has the offensive personnel to make the Timberwolves' incredible defense mostly irrelevant, even damaging, and Minnesota's offense just isn't good enough against Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal.

What good is all that elite rim protection against a team that ranks bottom three in points in the paint? Minnesota's entire defensive scheme is about positioning and forcing the team into tough 2s, and those are the exact shots the Suns want to take. Book, KD and Beal are just stepping right into those shots.

The Suns swept the season series, winning three times by double digits. They led by 22, 16 and 13 at the half in those games with a dazzling array of shooting and nightmarish offense from Minnesota. Edwards scored just 43 points in three games, and no Timberwolf topped four assists in any of the three games.

Fouls will be a problem too. The Wolves rely on free throws for offense, but the Suns barely foul; meanwhile, Minnesota's one real defensive flaw is that the aggressive Wolves foul a lot, and the Suns lead the league in free-throw rate. There are problems all over the place for Minnesota.

Betting Picks

Suns -1.5 (+155, bet365) | Sprinkle Suns sweep (+900)

This is just an absolute nightmare matchup for Minnesota. Phoenix's profile effectively makes Minnesota's strengths irrelevant. You beat the Suns with elite offense, not defense, and Minnesota's offense can't match blow for blow with Phoenix's stars.

This could be a really tenuous spot for this team and fan base emotionally too. Minnesota played all season with swagger and thought it was the No. 1 seed. Then the team collapsed late, fell into the worst bracket draw possible and now has to play the team it just got embarrassed by again. This could even turn into home disadvantage if the team loses belief and lets go of the rope.

The Suns are not a great team, but they're just the wrong matchup for Minnesota. Life ain't fair. Bet the Suns -1.5 to win in six or less, and nibble the sweep at +900 in case the Wolves lose the first two at home and lose faith.

Props & Other Angles

If you like series leader markets, most of them look pretty interesting — especially if the series is short, introducing more variance. The Suns had no player over six rebounds in two of the three matchups. The Wolves had no player hit five assists in a game. Neither team takes many 3s, already a high-variance market.

Karl-Anthony Towns looks mispriced at +800 for 3s leader. No one on either team averages even three 3s a game, and Minnesota badly needs KAT out there stretching this defense and making his mark on the series. If you don't think Towns can stay on the court, Naz Reid +1400 could be the play.

Jusuf Nurkic will play as much as he can against all those Wolves centers. He was terrific in the season series, with eight steals and 18 assists in the three games. He may be a game-to-game play, though steals leader would be playable if you find the market, and +1000 assists leader could also be a look.

Nuggets vs. Lakers

Game 1: Sat., April 20, 8:30 p.m. ET
Nuggets -400 | Lakers +310 (FanDuel)

The Case for the Nuggets

We've seen this movie before.

The Nuggets have won eight straight against the Lakers, one of only 16 LA losing streaks that long in the history of the franchise. That includes a Western Conference Finals sweep, a talked-about-all-offseason failed-revenge-night opener, and Kobe Night when the statue was unveiled. It's always the same.

The Nuggets starters typically get an early lead, the Lakers battle back and hang around, Denver closes things out late. Denver scores consistent, easy, efficient looks; the Lakers struggle to get their usual free throws and don't score well. Anthony Davis is maddeningly inconsistent, D'Angelo Russell is unplayable. Jokic averages 28.4 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 10.6 assists across the eight games, controlling every step of the way.

Lather, rinse, repeat.

Denver is the better team, and the Nuggets have all the little edges. LA wants to push the pace (No. 4 in the NBA), Denver likes it slow (No. 27), and these games consistently play out slow. LA ranks third in fast break points but Denver allows the 8th fewest and should make up what they allow against the Lakers' 27th-ranked transition defense. LA also ranks 27th in second-chance points allowed, and Denver is top 10 in offensive rebounding and has mashed the offensive glass in these matchups.

Those fast starts? The Lakers have a -4.0 Net Rating in the first quarter (22nd) vs. +14.8 for the Nuggets (second). Denver is +10.1 at home (third), and the Lakers are -4.1 (20th) on the road and start the series there. Everything sets up for L.A. to fall behind early and be forced to chase.

The Lakers are like an annoying gnat to the Nuggets. They'll pester and bug and hang around, but Jokic and Denver swat them away in the end. They always do.

The Case for the Lakers

It's the playoffs, and LeBron James and Anthony Davis are healthy. That alone is reason to believe, especially for a team that just went from the play-in to the Conference Finals a year ago at this time. LeBron still has that extra gear when the games matter most.

The Lakers got a friendly whistle at home even against Denver, and that can break up the flow and get LA some easy points. The defense a year ago forced some uncharacteristically bad Jokic nights.

The Lakers also went 11-4 in three-point games and 4-1 in overtime. Los Angeles has lost eight straight, but the Lakers were almost always still in the game in the fourth quarter. Clutch play is more random than you'd think and doesn't carry over from season to season, or even from the regular season. Maybe Denver's fourth-quarter closeouts flip the other way, the Lakers steal a couple of close games, and now the champs are staring down the barrel at LeBron and Davis with the title defense on the line.

Betting Picks

Nuggets -1.5 (-140, DraftKings)

Just keep this easy. The Nuggets win this thing, and it ain't gonna take more than six. It probably won't even take this much, but this is some respect for LeBron.

The numbers don't lie. The Nuggets starters are far better than the Lakers. Denver is 5-2-1 in first quarters during this streak (+38) and 5-3 in fourth quarters, two of the Ls by a bucket protecting a comfortable lead.

The Lakers made a big stink about how competitive their sweep was, but it was still a sweep, and Denver is unbothered by this team. Jokic is clearly the best player in the series, LeBron or not, and he controls the game from start to finish. Denver should take care of business once again.

Props & Other Angles

Nuggets first quarters obviously look like a good play in games where you like Denver, especially home games considering the home-road splits. Be careful in Game 1, though. LA will be playing on three days of rest and LeBron knows it's his best chance to steal a road game and give the Lakers a shot. Game 2 on short rest will be a hammer spot for Denver. The Lakers have 25 double-digit losses this season, most of any postseason team, so don't be afraid to lay an alt line when you like Denver.

Jokic rebounds leader at +120 (BetMGM) is effectively a head-to-head bet against Anthony Davis. Jokic is at 13.4 RPG these last eight games to 11.0 for Davis, and Davis has outrebounded him only twice, with Jokic clearly ahead in head-to-head matchups all-time in both the regular and postseason. He should be favored.

Jokic 3s leader looks worth a nibble too at +10000 (bet365). He consistently gets 3s up to stretch Anthony Davis out away from the basket in this matchup, hitting 2.0-of-4.7 per game for 42% this stretch. Neither team shoots many 3s, and only Michael Porter Jr. (6.8 attempts per game) and Jamal Murray (5.8) take more 3s than that number — 100-to-1 is just too long.

Lastly, look to fade D'Angelo Russell. He just can't stay on the court defensively in this series and was benched by the time the WCF ends. Fade his points game by game and be sure to bet his series points per game under if posted.